Collective Intelligence NetworkResearch & design project
← Signals Foresight Observatory

AI Trajectory & Sovereignty Index.

Six METR T50 stages (2026–2032+) audited across 5,977 sources.

Parameters ▾
Verified Primary Corpus5,977 Sources (1,896 / 7d)
Recency Weightingλ = 7-Day Half-Life (30d Window)
Capability Horizon MetricMETR 50% Task Duration (T50)
Foresight MethodologySTEEP · Glenn · Delphi · Voros
Sovereignty Reading
64.0/ 100+3.2

Points toward human sovereignty.

30-DAY TRAJECTORY (50 → 70.1) VERIFICATION 5,977 Primary Sources 87% Agent Agreement 64x / 27mo AI Alert
8-axis breakdown ▾
You & your information
66
Money & economic transition
61
Deciding together
58
Measuring & checking
69
Bounded personal agents
65
Pluralistic values
62
Everyone, everywhere
59
Earning a practical place
71
5-Step Foresight

Six-Stage Trajectory (2026–2032+)

METR T50 Delphi · Voros
METR T50 HORIZON (LOG) VS. HUMAN OVERSIGHT Human Oversight (~40 bits/s) CIN Co-Intelligence & OCap Shield 2026 27 H1 27 H2 28-29 30-31 2032+ FUTURES CONE GAUGE 45% Plausible (Co-Op) 30% Probable (Friction) 15% Wildcard (Capture) 10% Preferable (Sovereign) Click stage node to animate
Stage 1 · 2026 · T50: 2–4h

Local OCap & NCCI Audits

Mechanism ▾

On-device 3B–8B models inside WebAssembly Object-Capability sandboxes cross the threshold required to parse hospital Explanation of Benefits (EOB) PDFs, cross-check statutory CMS NCCI unbundling tables, and draft ready-to-send administrative appeals with zero cloud leakage.

1. Ripples

1st / 2nd / 3rd Order ▾
1st-Order<15s EOB Audit
2nd-OrderNCCI Appeals
3rd-OrderBuyer Co-Ops
  • 1st-Order Technical Shift: Local personal agents audit medical bills and bank CSVs inside hardware-isolated OCap sandboxes, flagging CPT unbundling and junk fees in under 15 seconds.
  • 2nd-Order Institutional Response: Hospital revenue-cycle clearinghouses face a surge of machine-verified statutory appeals citing CMS NCCI tables; outpatient cash-pay transparency accelerates.
  • 3rd-Order Structural Equilibrium: Households and independent clinics form persistent cryptographic buyer coalitions, shifting price-setting power from middleman PBMs/GPOs back to patients and clinicians.

2. Delphi

3-Persona Debate ▾
Optimist4-Bit Verifier
RealistOCR Bridge
Red-TeamerOCap Gate
  • Techno-Optimist: Quantized 4-bit local models with deterministic rule verifiers already exceed human billing advocates on CPT modifier accuracy at near-zero marginal cost.
  • Institutional Realist: Incumbent hospital portals and Epic/Change Healthcare clearinghouses will throttle automated API queries, requiring local OCR + statutory patient-right-of-access workflows.
  • Chaos Red-Teamer: Malicious cloud browser extensions will masquerade as billing auditors to harvest raw medical records unless hardware OCap egress firewalls are enforced by default.

3. Futures Cone

Probabilities (100%) ▾
Plausible (Co-Op & OCap)45%
Probable (Baseline Friction)30%
Wildcard (Regulatory Freeze)15%
Preferable (Sovereign Rail)10%

4. Tripwires

12–24m Signposts ▾
Q4 2026>92% QUIC
Q1 2027>95% NCCI
Q3 202750+ PSI Co-Op
  • Signpost 1 (Q4 2026): Browser & desktop WebAssembly OCap sandboxes sustain 0-RTT IETF QUIC peer-to-peer NAT traversal above 92% residential success rate.
  • Signpost 2 (Q1 2027): CMS Price Transparency machine-readable files combined with local NCCI verifiers achieve >95% precision on outpatient CPT unbundling disputes.
  • Signpost 3 (Q3 2027): First 50 independent primary-care and dental clinics pool supply orders via Private Set Intersection without exposing supplier invoices.